Preview:ATP Finals: Jannik Sinner vs. Alex de Minaur – prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

One of the one-sided matchups on the ATP Tour takes centre stage in Turin as Jannik Sinner takes on first-time semi-finalist Alex de Minaur in Saturday’s first semi-final. 

De Minaur has never beaten the world No. 2 in 12 previous meetings, and he enters the ATP World Tour Finals last-four match keen to end that losing streak against the home favourite. 

Match preview

Having almost been in dire straits after losing to Lorenzo Musetti in his second round-robin match, De Minaur returned to the Inalpi Arena on Thursday needing to beat Taylor Fritz in straight sets and hope for a Carlos Alcaraz win over Musetti later. 

It was an ugly match against the American, but the Aussie dug in for a 7-6(3), 6-3 win; Alcaraz’s dominant 6-4, 6-1 victory over the Italian No. 2 later confirmed the Australian’s place among the final four in Turin. 

Having seen a 0-3 record at the Finals become 0-5 before Thursday, De Minaur has now secured his first-ever success at the year-end tournament, where he has also snapped a dismal losing streak against top-10 players. 

Outside of the Laver Cup, the 10-time ATP champion had lost 16 straight matches against players in the elite 10, and relief was palpable after beating Fritz to advance from the Jimmy Connors Group. 

Now, he seeks consecutive wins over that elite group for the first time since notching a trio of victories against Fritz, Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev at last year’s United Cup in January. 

Facing the defending champion in Turin will require the Demon playing otherworldly tennis if he is to have any chance of beating the 23-time tour-level champion on home turf. 

Sinner’s latest indoor hard court win took place on Friday, when he secured an eighth consecutive straight-sets win over Ben Shelton in the final round-robin match in the Bjorn Borg group, winning 6-3, 7-6(3). 

That success not only marked the Italian superstar’s eighth straight triumph at the Finals, but it also continued his impressive winning streak on indoor courts. 

Twenty-eight victories became 29 with success over Shelton, and the Italian, who has claimed 16 consecutive sets across last year’s Finals in Turin and at the ongoing tournament, strives for a 30th straight triumph in these conditions. 

Entering the weekend at 40-3 on hard courts in the last year, losing only to Alcaraz in completed matches, Sinner is the undeniable favourite to secure a 41st success on the surface at the Demon’s expense.

Tournament so far

Jannik Sinner:

Round Robin: vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime 7-5 6-1

Round Robin: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-4 6-3

Round Robin: vs. Ben Shelton 6-3 7-6[3]

Alex de Minaur:

Round Robin: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 6-7[5] 2-6

Round Robin: vs. Lorenzo Musetti 5-7 6-3 5-7

Round Robin: vs. Taylor Fritz 7-6[3] 6-3

Head To Head

Vienna (2025) – Semi-final: Sinner 6-3 6-4 

Beijing (2025) – Semi-final: Sinner 6-3 4-6 6-2 

Australian Open (2025) – Quarter-final: Sinner 6-3 6-2 6-1

Davis Cup Finals (2024) – Semi-final: Sinner 6-3 6-4

ATP Finals (2024) – Round Robin: Sinner 6-3 6-4

Rotterdam Open (2024) – Final: Sinner 7-5 6-4

Davis Cup Finals (2023) – Final: Sinner 6-3 6-0

National Bank Open (2023) – Final: Sinner 6-4 6-1

Madrid Open (2022) – Second round: Sinner 6-4 6-1

Australian Open (2022) – Fourth round: Sinner 7-6[3] 6-3 6-4

Sofia Open (2020) – Quarter-final: Sinner 6-7[3] 6-4 6-1

Next Gen ATP Finals (2019) – Final: Sinner 4-2 4-1 4-2

Sinner leads De Minaur 12-0 in their head-to-head, and the 24-year-old aims for a 13th success against the Australian No. 1. 

Their forthcoming contest will be their third consecutive semi-final at tour-level, with the Italian superstar claiming wins in Beijing and Vienna en route to securing both titles ahead of the year-end tournament. 

However, the Beijing match was striking as it marked De Minaur taking a set off the 23-time ATP champion for just the second time. 

Altogether, Sinner leads their hard-court meetings 9-0, with seven of those encounters taking place indoors, and he seeks a 10th overall success on the surface this weekend. 

The home favourite enters Saturday at 12-2 against top-10 players on hard courts in 2025, losing only to Alcaraz in Cincinnati and the US Open, while the Demon’s 2-8 record against that group on the surface highlights the Aussie’s struggles to elevate his game when facing the elite competitors on tour.

We say: Sinner to win in two sets

De Minaur finally getting his first ATP Finals victory at the sixth time of asking was admirable for the player, who also ended a poor run of results against the tour’s best players. 

However, facing Sinner on a hard court in these conditions is an uphill battle for anyone not named Alcaraz, and the Italian No. 1 should dispatch the Aussie in straight sets and progress to Sunday’s final. 

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